NATO has confidentially and unofficially identified at least two “red lines” that could lead to the Alliance’s direct intervention in the war in Ukraine, according to to Repubblica.
The agency emphasizes that there are currently no operational plans that foresee the deployment of troops to Ukraine, and the described “red lines” should be considered only as an assessment of potential plans in the event of extraordinary circumstances, such as involvement in a war in Ukraine by third parties.
The first “red line”
The first “red line” focuses on the scenario of direct or indirect involvement by a third party, such as in the event of a possible breakthrough in northwestern Ukraine, creating a corridor between Ukraine and Belarus.
“This tactical scenario has recently been considered likely by several analysts of the allies. This would directly involve Minsk in the war. Its troops and arsenal would be crucial for Moscow. And this circumstance could only activate the defense in favor of Ukraine,” the article states.
The second “red line”
It concerns military provocation against the Baltic States or Poland or a deliberate attack on Moldova.
“This does not necessarily mean an invasion that could occur after an advance on Odesa, but rather a military strike to test the reaction of the West,” journalists note.
In particular, this could be an attempt to test NATO’s ability to react “in a phase of potential confusion.” Here, as stated in the article, the season of elections in Europe and the United States “might lead the Kremlin to think that NATO is distracted, however, the Alliance will not tolerate such aggression.”
NATO and war in Ukraine
In early April, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg did not rule out the possibility that the war in Ukraine could last for years.
According to him, there are two scenarios – NATO allies could provide assistance to Ukraine and the Ukrainian Armed Forces could regain more territory, otherwise “the situation in Ukraine could become even more dangerous.”
In turn, the Main Intelligence Directorate named the terms within which Russia could capture the Baltic countries. According to Ukrainian intelligence representative Vadym Skibitskyi, the Russian army would only need a week for this. However, a NATO response would take a whole decade.
Source: RBC Ukraine
