Economists cut Singapore’s growth forecast for 2024, inflation likely to ease

  • Singapore’s GDP is expected to expand by 2.3% next year, lower than the 2.5% forecast in the previous survey in September.
  • Headline and core inflation are expected to slide in 2024.

Singapore’s GDP growth in 2024 could be lower than previously expected, according to a survey by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

The quarterly survey, which compiled responses from 25 economists and analysts, pegs the city-state’s economic growth next year at 2.3%, lower than the 2.5% estimated in the September survey.

The economists expect Singapore’s headline and core inflation — which strips out prices of private transport and accommodation — to drop to 3.4% and 3%, respectively, in 2024 compared with the current year.

The respondents, however, expect slightly higher headline and core inflation in 2024, compared with the forecasts in the September survey.

GDP, inflation outlook for 2023

Singapore’s economy is expected to grow by 1% in 2023, the same as forecast in the September survey.

The respondents have a bearish outlook for most sectors of the Singapore economy, except construction, accommodation and food service sectors. Private consumption is expected to increase this year.

Inflation in 2023 is forecast to come in at 4.8%, slightly higher than the 4.7% estimated in the previous survey, while the outlook for MAS core inflation remained unchanged at 4.1%.

Singapore’s economy is expected to grow by 1.8% in the fourth quarter, after expanding at 1.1% in the third quarter.

Headline and MAS core inflation for the fourth quarter are expected at 4% and 3.1%, respectively.

In light of these forecasts, none of the respondents expect changes to Singapore’s monetary policy in Januray. The country manages its policy by tweaking the currency exchange rate setting instead of altering interest rates.

Source: CNBC