- Something is happening in Texas, with the early vote already 94% of the way to the entire number of ballots cast in the Lone Star state back in 2016, according to the US Elections Project.
- The Cook Political Report moved Texas into the tossup state category on Wednesday, a major development in the state worth 38 electoral votes, the second highest in the nation behind California.
- Sen. Kamala Harris, the Democratic vice presidential nominee, will campaign in Texas on Friday.
- FiveThirtyEight’s polling average has President Donald Trump ahead by just 1 point in the Lone Star state. He won it by 9 points in 2016.
- Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
Joe Biden is still ahead of Donald Trump in the national polls and in almost all of the battleground states, but often by tighter margins than his 9 point national lead, according to FiveThirtyEight’s rolling average.
We’re tracking the bevy of polling this late in the campaign with daily updates on what’s worth paying attention to.
- Texas is now a dead heat, with President Trump just 1 point ahead of Biden, according toFiveThirtyEight’s average.
- The race in the Lone Star state has tightened since the spring, and the Cook Political Report moved it into the tossup category on Wednesday after it had long been considered a solid or at least Republican-leaning state.
- Trump won Texas by 9 points in 2016, but a shift among suburban women away from the GOP and higher turnout among young voters are making the state much more competitive.
- Turnout in Texas is already at 94% of what it was in 2016 with more early voting still left to go, according to the US Elections Project.
- Texas is now more competitive for Biden and Democrats than Ohio, where Trump is up by an average of 2.3 points.
- The Lone Star State has 38 electoral votes, the second highest in the country behind California.
- Trump is behind Biden in the majority of battleground states, with several of the margins big enough for Biden to withstand the size of the biggest polling errors from 2016 and 2012, according to the New York Times Upshot team.